Holiday travel in 2021 will look very different than it did in 2020. More people are expected to travel, coronavirus cases are rising, a new variant is spreading and while more people are getting vaccinated everyday, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) recently issued new guidance for both children’s vaccines and booster shots.
In short, the coronavirus is still a major concern for anyone traveling. And that’s why how each state is responding to the pandemic is once again a significant factor in our evaluation of the riskiest states to travel to this holiday season.
Key findings:
- North Dakota, Wisconsin and Iowa are the riskiest states for holiday travel.
- Louisiana, New York and Connecticut are the safest states for holiday travel.
- New Mexico, Arizona and New Mexico were the riskiest states when evaluated on health factors alone.
- Tennessee, Iowa and North Dakota were the riskiest states when evaluated on driving factors alone.
To find the riskiest states for fall travel, we evaluated each state based on 14 different health and safety factors. COVID-19 case rates, vaccination rates, hospital capacity, prevalence of new coronavirus variants and the number of accidents, speeding tickets and DUIs were all considered. In the end, our analysts found that North Dakota is the riskiest state for holiday travel.
Overall rank | State | Health rank | Driving rank |
---|---|---|---|
1 | North Dakota | 5 | 3 |
2 | Wisconsin | 8 | 5 |
3 | Iowa | 18 | 2 |
4 | Tennessee | 23 | 1 |
5 | Nebraska | 14 | 12 |
6 | Ohio | 15 | 15 |
7 | Indiana | 12 | 20 |
8 | New Mexico | 3 | 31 |
9 | Kansas | 16 | 21 |
10 | South Carolina | 19 | 18 |
11 | Georgia | 13 | 26 |
12 | Minnesota | 17 | 23 |
13 | Rhode Island | 27 | 13 |
14 | Utah | 33 | 7 |
15 | North Carolina | 20 | 22 |
16 | Arizona | 2 | 41 |
17 | Kentucky | 1 | 42 |
18 | Pennsylvania | 7 | 36 |
19 | California | 35 | 9 |
20 | Alaska | 37 | 8 |
21 | Idaho | 40 | 6 |
22 | Massachusetts | 30 | 16 |
23 | Vermont | 22 | 24 |
24 | Colorado | 28 | 19 |
25 | Michigan | 4 | 43 |
26 | Missouri | 9 | 38 |
27 | Virginia | 43 | 4 |
28 | Arkansas | 11 | 37 |
29 | Wyoming | 34 | 14 |
30 | Oregon | 36 | 17 |
31 | New Jersey | 44 | 11 |
32 | Oklahoma | 6 | 50 |
33 | Maryland | 47 | 10 |
34 | Nevada | 25 | 32 |
35 | Texas | 24 | 33 |
36 | West Virginia | 10 | 48 |
37 | South Dakota | 31 | 29 |
38 | Maine | 39 | 25 |
39 | New Hampshire | 21 | 47 |
40 | Washington | 41 | 27 |
41 | Alabama | 26 | 44 |
42 | Florida | 46 | 28 |
43 | Montana | 45 | 30 |
44 | Illinois | 32 | 45 |
45 | Delaware | 29 | 49 |
46 | Hawaii | 48 | 34 |
47 | Mississippi | 42 | 40 |
48 | Louisiana | 38 | 46 |
49 | New York | 49 | 35 |
50 | Connecticut | 50 | 39 |
While more and more people are getting vaccinated every day, we believe the coronavirus will continue to play a large role in people’s holiday travel plans. When measured on health factors alone, we found that Kentucky, Arizona and New Mexico are the riskiest places for holiday travel.
Overall health rank (worst to best) | State | Hospital capacity rank | COVID-19 deaths rank | COVID-19 case rank | Underlying health conditions rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kentucky | 8 | 1 | 21 | 3 |
2 | Arizona | 4 | 6 | 16 | 25 |
3 | New Mexico | 1 | 21 | 6 | 23 |
4 | Michigan | 19 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
5 | North Dakota | 29 | 8 | 19 | 21 |
6 | Oklahoma | 17 | 13 | 29 | 8 |
7 | Pennsylvania | 31 | 9 | 12 | 28 |
8 | Wisconsin | 25 | 17 | 10 | 33 |
9 | Missouri | 18 | 30 | 24 | 12 |
10 | West Virginia | 23 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
11 | Arkansas | 27 | 18 | 34 | 7 |
12 | Indiana | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 |
13 | Georgia | 3 | 35 | 45 | 13 |
14 | Nebraska | 21 | 38 | 18 | 24 |
15 | Ohio | 34 | 16 | 9 | 11 |
16 | Kansas | 40 | 28 | 11 | 16 |
17 | Minnesota | 20 | 11 | 3 | 37 |
18 | Iowa | 30 | 19 | 17 | 27 |
19 | South Carolina | 13 | 32 | 42 | 9 |
20 | North Carolina | 22 | 39 | 32 | 14 |
21 | New Hampshire | 5 | 20 | 1 | 40 |
22 | Vermont | 9 | 33 | 5 | 46 |
23 | Tennessee | 45 | 5 | 35 | 6 |
24 | Texas | 16 | 37 | 46 | 10 |
25 | Nevada | 11 | 15 | 39 | 17 |
26 | Alabama | 6 | 44 | 47 | 4 |
27 | Rhode Island | 2 | 36 | 4 | 47 |
28 | Colorado | 12 | 7 | 27 | 50 |
29 | Delaware | 33 | 24 | 13 | 26 |
30 | Massachusetts | 10 | 27 | 8 | 49 |
31 | South Dakota | 50 | 14 | 20 | 30 |
32 | Illinois | 48 | 25 | 14 | 20 |
33 | Utah | 37 | 26 | 26 | 41 |
34 | Wyoming | 39 | 4 | 31 | 42 |
35 | California | 7 | 43 | 43 | 43 |
36 | Oregon | 24 | 22 | 41 | 29 |
37 | Alaska | 36 | 50 | 30 | 35 |
38 | Louisiana | 41 | 46 | 48 | 5 |
39 | Maine | 47 | 29 | 22 | 32 |
40 | Idaho | 14 | 23 | 36 | 36 |
41 | Washington | 15 | 31 | 40 | 38 |
42 | Mississippi | 42 | 49 | 44 | 2 |
43 | Virginia | 28 | 41 | 33 | 22 |
44 | New Jersey | 49 | 40 | 25 | 44 |
45 | Montana | 44 | 10 | 37 | 39 |
46 | Florida | 26 | 50 | 50 | 18 |
47 | Maine | 43 | 45 | 26 | 31 |
48 | Maryland | 39 | 40 | 40 | 45 |
49 | New Jersey | 47 | 47 | 37 | 34 |
50 | Connecticut | 48 | 49 | 42 | 48 |
We considered four different factors when compiling each state’s overall vacation rate: the number of unvaccinated people, how many booster shots have been distributed, the number of children who have been vaccinated and if the new Omicron variant has been detected in that state. Hawaii ranks lowest overall in vaccinations because of a low number of booster shots given and children who have been vaccinated.
Idaho has the lowest number of vaccinated people. New Jersey has given out the fewest booster shots. Vermont has the lowest number of children who have been vaccinated. And as of December 14, the Omicron variant has been detected in more than half of the country.
Overall vaccination rank (worst to best) | State | Unvaccinated rank | Booster doses rank | Children vaccinated rank | Omicron detected - as of Dec. 14 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hawaii | 31 | 3 | 14 | Yes |
2 | Wisconsin | 29 | 4 | 17 | Yes |
3 | Nebraska | 27 | 2 | 22 | Yes |
4 | Pennsylvania | 28 | 5 | 18 | Yes |
5 | Missouri | 11 | 7 | 34 | Yes |
6 | Alaska | 19 | 9 | 20 | No |
7 | Georgia | 7 | 6 | 43 | Yes |
8 | North Dakota | 6 | 13 | 33 | No |
9 | North Carolina | 18 | 10 | 26 | No |
10 | Utah | 25 | 11 | 23 | Yes |
11 | New Jersey | 43 | 1 | 16 | Yes |
12 | Arkansas | 8 | 12 | 37 | No |
13 | Louisiana | 5 | 14 | 47 | Yes |
14 | California | 35 | 19 | 13 | Yes |
15 | Texas | 24 | 8 | 35 | Yes |
16 | Arizona | 22 | 16 | 31 | Yes |
17 | Iowa | 26 | 22 | 25 | Yes |
18 | Kansas | 20 | 21 | 28 | No |
19 | Oklahoma | 13 | 15 | 41 | No |
20 | South Carolina | 12 | 18 | 40 | No |
21 | Mississippi | 4 | 23 | 48 | Yes |
22 | New Mexico | 37 | 20 | 15 | No |
23 | Vermont | 50 | 24 | 1 | No |
24 | Maine | 48 | 26 | 3 | No |
25 | South Dakota | 23 | 28 | 27 | No |
26 | Connecticut | 47 | 29 | 7 | Yes |
27 | Maryland | 42 | 32 | 9 | Yes |
28 | Washington | 41 | 30 | 12 | Yes |
29 | Illinois | 33 | 41 | 10 | Yes |
30 | Tennessee | 9 | 27 | 44 | No |
31 | Florida | 30 | 17 | 38 | Yes |
32 | Michigan | 21 | 44 | 21 | Yes |
33 | Indiana | 10 | 33 | 39 | No |
34 | Kentucky | 15 | 31 | 36 | No |
35 | Colorado | 36 | 43 | 8 | Yes |
36 | Alabama | 3 | 34 | 46 | No |
37 | Wyoming | 2 | 36 | 45 | No |
38 | Oregon | 38 | 35 | 11 | No |
39 | Minnesota | 34 | 49 | 6 | Yes |
40 | Ohio | 16 | 40 | 29 | No |
41 | Delaware | 32 | 25 | 30 | No |
42 | Massachusetts | 46 | 46 | 2 | Yes |
43 | Virginia | 40 | 50 | 5 | Yes |
44 | Montana | 14 | 45 | 32 | No |
45 | Rhode Island | 49 | 38 | 4 | No |
46 | Nevada | 17 | 37 | 42 | No |
47 | New York | 45 | 39 | 19 | Yes |
48 | Idaho | 1 | 48 | 50 | No |
49 | New Hampshire | 39 | 42 | 24 | No |
50 | West Virginia | 44 | 47 | 49 | No |
Airline travel made a significant comeback this summer, but this holiday season, more people will be driving to their vacation destinations. After looking at each state’s number of accidents, speeding tickets and DUIs, we found that Tennessee is the riskiest place for that long road trip.
Overall rank | State | DUI rank | Accidents rank | Speeding rank |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Tennessee | 2 | 1 | 6 |
2 | Iowa | 6 | 12 | 5 |
3 | North Dakota | 3 | 16 | 7 |
4 | Wisconsin | 11 | 26 | 2 |
5 | Virginia | 15 | 13 | 11 |
6 | Idaho | 8 | 17 | 15 |
7 | Utah | 10 | 9 | 21 |
8 | Alaska | 13 | 20 | 10 |
9 | California | 5 | 4 | 37 |
10 | Maryland | 37 | 5 | 4 |
11 | New Jersey | 33 | 10 | 3 |
12 | Nebraska | 7 | 8 | 33 |
13 | Rhode Island | 28 | 3 | 19 |
14 | Wyoming | 1 | 29 | 26 |
15 | Ohio | 17 | 25 | 17 |
16 | Massachusetts | 24 | 2 | 34 |
17 | South Carolina | 48 | 7 | 9 |
18 | Oregon | 22 | 22 | 20 |
19 | Colorado | 20 | 33 | 13 |
20 | Indiana | 16 | 21 | 29 |
21 | Kansas | 26 | 27 | 14 |
22 | North Carolina | 23 | 18 | 27 |
23 | Minnesota | 14 | 44 | 12 |
24 | Vermont | 36 | 14 | 23 |
25 | Maine | 32 | 11 | 31 |
26 | Georgia | 35 | 15 | 28 |
27 | Washington | 30 | 24 | 24 |
28 | Florida | 34 | 6 | 39 |
29 | South Dakota | 12 | 47 | 22 |
30 | Montana | 4 | 35 | 44 |
31 | New Mexico | 9 | 32 | 50 |
32 | Nevada | 21 | 28 | 43 |
33 | Texas | 31 | 19 | 42 |
34 | Hawaii | 49 | 43 | 1 |
35 | Pennsylvania | 25 | 34 | 35 |
36 | New York | 50 | 36 | 8 |
37 | Arkansas | 27 | 38 | 30 |
38 | Missouri | 43 | 39 | 16 |
39 | Connecticut | 44 | 23 | 32 |
40 | Mississippi | 18 | 37 | 49 |
41 | Arizona | 29 | 40 | 36 |
42 | Kentucky | 19 | 46 | 41 |
43 | Michigan | 38 | 50 | 18 |
44 | Alabama | 39 | 30 | 46 |
45 | Illinois | 45 | 45 | 25 |
46 | Louisiana | 41 | 31 | 45 |
47 | New Hampshire | 46 | 42 | 40 |
48 | West Virginia | 42 | 49 | 38 |
49 | Delaware | 47 | 41 | 47 |
50 | Oklahoma | 40 | 48 | 48 |
Our analysis found that seven of the top 10 riskiest states to travel this holiday season are in the midwestern portion of the United States. This is largely due to the regions’ COVID-19 response. Many of the hospitals there are either at or near capacity, and a significant portion of the population remains unvaccinated.
Methodology:
QuoteWizard analyzed 12 metrics to find out the riskiest states to travel to. This includes driving accidents, speeding, DUIs, COVID-19 cases and deaths, unvaccinated rates (both doses, booster shots and children vaccination rates) and hospital capacity, which includes hospital beds, physicians, ICU bed capacity, underlying health condition rates and staffing shortages.
Each metric was ranked on a 1-50 scale, with an ascending score representing the least safe to safest conditions for specific state travel. We then determined each state’s safety ranking by averaging across all metric scores to calculate its overall ranking and used the resulting scores to rank-order each state.
Adult COVID-19 vaccination rates: QuoteWizard analyzed CDC data on adults who are not vaccinated against COVID-19. Our ranking is based on states that had the lowest to highest percentages of adults with both doses of a vaccine as of Dec. 10.
Dangerous driving states: Driving rankings were compiled from QuoteWizard’s proprietary data. State’s were ranked based on the rate of accidents, speeding tickets and DUIs.
COVID-19 case and death rates: We looked at CDC data on the United States daily average COVID-19 Cases and deaths by state per 100K in the last seven days starting Dec. 10.
Hospital capacity: We averaged four metrics: hospital beds and physicians per 1000 residents, current ICU bed capacity and rate of hospital staffing shortages. To calculate the number of available ICU beds in each state, we used data from the United States Department of Health and Human Services (HSS) compiled starting on December 10. Data on the number of ICU beds and physicians per capita was compiled using information from the Kaiser Family Foundation and HHS. To calculate the least-prepared states for hospital capacity, we generated an aggregate score based on the number of available ICU beds, physicians per capita and current hospital capacity.