The COVID-19 vaccine being developed by a number of pharmaceutical companies is in the final stages of FDA emergency approval. Pfizer and Moderna are leading the way in getting the COVID-19 vaccine distributed before the end of the year. President Trump’s “Operation Warp Speed” vaccine development has already purchased hundreds of millions of doses of vaccines in advance for distribution. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in preparation for vaccine distribution, has awarded $200 million to jurisdictions for vaccination programs. With a vaccine on the way and resources allocated in preparation, who will get the vaccine first, and what states will have the highest-priority groups?
- A national rate (6.3%) of priority people will receive the vaccine first.
- New York, Massachusetts and South Dakota have the highest rates of high-priority people who will receive first vaccines.
- Nevada, Wyoming and Utah have the lowest rates of individuals who will receive the first vaccine batch.
- There are roughly 20 million high-priority individuals (3,714,960 seniors and 16,926,288 health care workers) who could receive the first vaccine distribution.
- Health care workers only make up about 5% of our national labor force.
According to COVID-19 vaccine allocation group Ariadne Labs and Surgo Foundation, the initial groups being considered as high priority are:
- High-risk workers in health care facilities and first responders.
- Older adults in congregated settings and people with significant comorbid conditions.
Health care workers and first responders are the initial priority group followed by high-risk older adults in nursing facilities. QuoteWizard’s analysis of the Ariadne Labs and Surgo Foundation data among these priority groups found that health care workers and first responders represent 16.9 million people and high-risk adults in nursing facilities represent 3.7 million people. With a little over 20 million people in the high-priority groups, there appears to be nearly enough vaccination doses available to everyone in the priority groups. The Department of Health and Human Services expects to have about 40 million doses of the vaccine available by the end of the year — enough to inoculate about 20 million people, as the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require two shots.
We here at QuoteWizard continued our analysis of the Ariadne Labs and Surgo Foundation vaccine allocation data to see which states had the highest rates of high-priority groups among the population. Nationwide, we found that 6.3% of the population fits into the high-priority vaccine groups. However, state to state, the rate of population that fits into the high-priority vaccine groups varies. We found that New York, Massachusetts and South Dakota had the largest groups of high-priority individuals — over 8% of their respective populations. States like Nevada, Wyoming and Utah, on the other hand, were among the lowest populations, with less than 5%, respectively, in the high-priority groups.
|Rank||State||Healthcare Workers||Seniors in Nursing or Resident Homes||Vaccine Distribution (%)|
To determine the rate of individuals who will receive the first COVID-19 vaccines per state, QuoteWizard analyzed Ariadne Labs and Surgo Foundation’s Vaccine Allocation Planner for COVID-19 dataset. We looked at the two high-priority groups who will receive the first vaccines declared by the CDC. This includes high-risk workers in health care facilities and older adults who live in congregated or overcrowded areas, such as nursing and residential care residents. To find the states that will require higher rates of the first vaccine distribution, we calculated the total number of these two groups and divided it by the total state population. This allowed us to rank states most in need of the first vaccine.