COVID-19 Vaccine Priority Groups by State

The COVID-19 vaccine being developed by a number of pharmaceutical companies is in the final stages of FDA emergency approval. Pfizer and Moderna are leading the way in getting the COVID-19 vaccine distributed before the end of the year. President Trump’s “Operation Warp Speed” vaccine development has already purchased hundreds of millions of doses of vaccines in advance for distribution. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in preparation for vaccine distribution, has awarded $200 million to jurisdictions for vaccination programs. With a vaccine on the way and resources allocated in preparation, who will get the vaccine first, and what states will have the highest-priority groups?

According to COVID-19 vaccine allocation group Ariadne Labs and Surgo Foundation, the initial groups being considered as high priority are:

• High-risk workers in health care facilities and first responders.
• Older adults in congregated settings and people with significant comorbid conditions.

Health care workers and first responders are the initial priority group followed by high-risk older adults in nursing facilities. QuoteWizard’s analysis of the Ariadne Labs and Surgo Foundation data among these priority groups found that health care workers and first responders represent 16.9 million people and high-risk adults in nursing facilities represent 3.7 million people. With a little over 20 million people in the high-priority groups, there appears to be nearly enough vaccination doses available to everyone in the priority groups. The Department of Health and Human Services expects to have about 40 million doses of the vaccine available by the end of the year — enough to inoculate about 20 million people, as the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require two shots.

We here at QuoteWizard continued our analysis of the Ariadne Labs and Surgo Foundation vaccine allocation data to see which states had the highest rates of high-priority groups among the population. Nationwide, we found that 6.3% of the population fits into the high-priority vaccine groups. However, state to state, the rate of population that fits into the high-priority vaccine groups varies. We found that New York, Massachusetts and South Dakota had the largest groups of high-priority individuals — over 8% of their respective populations. States like Nevada, Wyoming and Utah, on the other hand, were among the lowest populations, with less than 5%, respectively, in the high-priority groups.

Vaccine distribution by State

Rank	State	Healthcare Workers	Seniors in Nursing or Resident Homes	Vaccine Distribution (%)
1	New York	1,372,351	273,318	8.5%
2	Massachusetts	512,995	42,202	8.1%
3	South Dakota	54,136	16,917	8.0%
4	Rhode Island	69,935	10,608	7.6%
5	Ohio	723,397	147,702	7.5%
6	North Dakota	44,967	9,528	7.2%
7	Nebraska	103,947	33,753	7.1%
8	Pennsylvania	818,220	85,723	7.1%
9	Missouri	345,014	85,371	7.0%
10	Iowa	155,849	62,600	6.9%
11	Minnesota	346,359	43,513	6.9%
12	Maine	79,785	12,238	6.9%
13	West Virginia	100,883	21,431	6.8%
14	Connecticut	214,802	25,849	6.8%
15	Wisconsin	311,095	78,633	6.7%
16	Tennessee	364,571	81,322	6.5%
17	Hawaii	64,621	27,761	6.5%
18	Louisiana	259,629	43,116	6.5%
19	Delaware	54,339	9,006	6.5%
20	New Jersey	489,082	85,175	6.5%
21	New Hampshire	76,609	11,034	6.5%
22	Florida	1,068,437	273,195	6.3%
23	Arizona	353,988	96,076	6.2%
24	Arkansas	140,460	45,858	6.2%
25	Maryland	320,929	51,686	6.2%
26	Indiana	348,020	66,366	6.2%
27	Illinois	654,598	109,227	6.0%
28	Montana	49,909	14,407	6.0%
29	California	1,719,848	642,269	6.0%
30	Vermont	31,120	6,159	6.0%
31	Oklahoma	187,779	46,596	5.9%
32	Alaska	33,675	9,561	5.9%
33	Kansas	130,540	41,162	5.9%
34	Alabama	236,199	52,564	5.9%
35	Texas	1,402,648	303,374	5.9%
36	Oregon	198,607	47,902	5.8%
37	North Carolina	486,101	124,344	5.8%
38	Michigan	522,041	55,954	5.8%
39	Kentucky	211,152	47,067	5.8%
40	Virginia	388,227	97,153	5.7%
41	Idaho	81,419	19,793	5.7%
42	New Mexico	99,743	17,071	5.6%
43	Colorado	250,061	67,104	5.5%
44	Washington	353,494	60,673	5.4%
45	Mississippi	121,927	35,424	5.3%
46	Georgia	470,455	86,652	5.3%
47	South Carolina	230,969	36,777	5.2%
48	Utah	130,314	27,544	4.9%
49	Wyoming	21,856	6,220	4.9%
50	Nevada	119,186	19,982	4.5%
	United States	16,926,288	3,714,960	6.3%

Methodology

To determine the rate of individuals who will receive the first COVID-19 vaccines per state, QuoteWizard analyzed Ariadne Labs and Surgo Foundation’s Vaccine Allocation Planner for COVID-19 dataset. We looked at the two high-priority groups who will receive the first vaccines declared by the CDC. This includes high-risk workers in health care facilities and older adults who live in congregated or overcrowded areas, such as nursing and residential care residents. To find the states that will require higher rates of the first vaccine distribution, we calculated the total number of these two groups and divided it by the total state population. This allowed us to rank states most in need of the first vaccine.

References:

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